Twenty Elections that could change the World in 2012

Sunday, January 1, 2012


It's not just Barack Obama and the upcoming elections that can change the world as we know it this year, there are 19 other very important elections, that can be either--a good thing or in some cases-- a bad thing. If there is one thing we know, it's when power is given to the wrong person or party, an entire nation and it's people will suffer. It is why elections are so very important to society--making sure that the people and their needs are met first, making sure the right person gets into office.

In 2011, we saw citizens take to the streets demanding change, overthrowing long standing leaders and thier regimes. It was a year of "enough is enough". From Tunisia's Bin Ali, Egypt's Mubarak and Libya's Gadafi, 2011 proved to be a year that changed the world as we know it. However, it is 2012, that will stand out in history, as 20 countries around the world will undergo a leadership transition. Four of those countries being permananent members of the U.N Security Council- the United States, Russia, China and France. Third world countries will have national, state or local elecctions and we will finally see the Arab Spring counrties putting thier democracies to work.

Let's start with the biggest of them all....
The United State of America--Barack Obama vs. some GOP Guy.

Type: Presidential, legislative
When: Nov. 6
What to watch: Mitt Romney is  proving to be the steady-as-he-goes Republican frontrunner that he's always been. President Barack Obama's approval rating is hovering in the low 40s, while the struggling U.S. economy remains by far the top issue for voters. The focus may be on the next leader of the free world, but which party controls the U.S. legislative branch -- which, in turn, controls U.S. fiscal policy -- is also up for grabs in 2012.

EGYPT
Type: Presidential, parliamentary
When: President (unclear); Parliament: Jan. 3-4 (round 3, lower house), Jan. 29-30 (round 1, upper house), Feb. 14-15 (round 2, upper house), March 4-5 (round 3, upper house)
What to watch: All eyes are on Egypt to see how the standard-bearer of the Arab Spring will navigate the dicey transition from dictatorship to democracy. So far, the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and, to a lesser extent, the more religiously conservative Salafi al-Nour party, both repressed under Hosni Mubarak.


RUSSIA
Type: Presidential
When: March 4
What to watch: Vladimir Putin's decision in September 2011 to nudge Dmitri Medvedev aside and seek a third six-year term as president, after a stint as prime minister, may not have been all that shocking. But what was surprising were the mass protests that erupted in Moscow and other cities three months later to condemn alleged fraud during parliamentary elections that still managed to deal a blow to Putin's United Russia party.


CHINA
Type: Communist Party's 18th Congress
When: October
What to watch: This fall, China will reveal its new rulers for the next decade in what admittedly is more of a backroom leadership transition than a popular election (according to the Wall Street Journal, the order in which leaders march on stage during the Communist Party's conference will signify their rank in the new government)

MEXICO
Type: Presidential, legislative
When: July 1
What to watch:Mounting discontent over President Felipe Calderón's war on drug cartels --which has claimed roughly 45,000 lives since 2006 -- and Mexico's furtive economic recovery could pave the way for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled the country for much of the 20th century, to reclaim the presidency, rallying behind its dashing, charismatic candidate Enrique Peña Nieto.


FRANCE
Type: Presidential, parliamentary
When: President: April 22 (round 1), May 6 (round 2); Parliament: June 10 (round 1), June 17 (round 2)
What to watch: The deeply unpopular French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who spent the past year working with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to resolve the European debt crisis and spearheading the international military intervention in Libya, will be facing off against Socialist candidate François Hollande, who has never campaigned for a national office and wasn't planning on running until former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn dropped out after his arrest on sexual assault charge.

ZIMBABWE
Type: Presidential, parliamentary
When: Unclear
What to watch: President Robert Mugabe has called for elections in 2012 to replace the country's power-sharing government, forged in 2009 after a bitterly disputed contest between the Zimbabwean strongman and the Movement for Democratic Change's Morgan Tsvangirai, who is now prime minister. But it's unclear if and when the elections -- let alone a long-delayed constitutional referendum stipulated in the 2009 unity deal and championed by Tsvangirai -- will happen.

VENEZUELA
Type: Presidential
When: Oct. 7
What to watch: Parliamentary elections in September 2010 revealed a split in Venezuela between supporters and opponents of Hugo Chávez, and the country's empowered opposition now senses an opportunity to unseat the cancer-stricken Venezuelan president. Still, polls in early December showed Chávez defeating Henrique Capriles Radonski, the current favorite to win an opposition primary in February. Chávez's enduring popularity in Venezuela suggests that his reelection may hinge on his health.


LIBYA
Type: Parliamentary
When: June (tentative)
What to watch: Under Muammar al-Qaddafi, elections for the General People's Congress were a farce. Now, with Qaddafi overthrown and Libya's National Transitional Council in charge, parliamentary elections are scheduled for the summer in a country that has had scant electoral experience over the past four decades. The plan is for the interim assembly elected in 2012 to draft a constitution and then hold new parliamentary polls in 2013, but Libya's transitional leaders have come under fire for not yet compiling an election register or making any announcements about how the elections will work, let alone the format of the new assembly.

IRAN
Type: Parliamentary
When: March 2
What to watch: One of the major stories in Iran this year was the power struggle between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This coming year's parliamentary race -- the first polls since the disputed 2009 presidential election that sparked the Green Movement -- will pit hard-line candidates loyal to Khamenei against Ahmadinejad's supporters, with the country's major reformist groups boycottingwhat they feel are sham elections.

SOUTH KOREA
Type: Presidential, parliamentary
When: President: Dec. 19; Parliament: April 11
What to watch: South Korea's presidential and parliamentary elections are occurring in the same year for the first time since 1992, with income inequality and the political transition in North Korea following the death of Kim Jong Il likely to be the dominant issues in the busy campaign season.

MOLDOVA
Type: Presidential
When: Jan. 15
What to watch: And you thought Belgium's 541-day run without a government was bad. The ex-Soviet republic Moldova, it turns out, has been without a president for more than two years. Worse, there are currently no candidates for the impoverished Eastern European country's presidential election, which takes place in parliament rather than by popular vote and is only weeks away. The sole candidate, parliament speaker and interim President Marian Lupu, withdrew in December after he failed to garner the parliamentary majority necessary to assume the office -- a problem that has plagued past aspirants.

TAIWAN
Type: Presidential, parliamentary
When: Jan. 14
What to watch: The outcome of this election could have major implications for Taiwan's relationship with China, which still claims sovereignty over the island even though Taiwan has ruled itself since 1949. President Ma Ying-jeou, who has opened up diplomatic channels with China and forged a bilateral trade pact with Beijing, will likely continue this rapprochement if he wins reelection.


YEMEN
Type: Presidential
When: Feb. 21
What to watch: After numerous false starts, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh finally agreed last month to a U.S.-backed Gulf deal to end his 33-year rule and cede power to his vice president after nine months of protests that brought Yemen to the brink of civil war. The country will hold early presidential elections this winter, and Yemen's new leader will immediately have to contend with the corruption, poverty, separatist movements, and pockets of Islamic extremism that Saleh left behind.

SENEGAL
Type: Presidential, parliamentary
When: President: Feb. 26; Parliament: June
What to watch: In July, Senegal's aging President Abdoulaye Wade reengineered the country's constitution so that he could run for a third term, win the election with only 25 percent of the vote, and transfer power to his son Karim Wade, already a government minister.

KAZAKHSTAN
Type: Parliament
When: Jan. 25
What to watch: Given that President Nursultan Nazarbayev won a new five-year term in April with 95.5 percent of the vote and that his party, Nur Otan, won all the seats in parliament in 2007, one wouldn't expect elections in Kazakhstan to mean much. But deadly clashes in December between police and protesters supporting workers in the country's oil-producing province have made the upcoming elections more interesting.

KENYA
Type: Parliamentary, Presidential
When: Aug. 14
What to watch: After 2007's bloody disputes between incumbent Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga, which left 1,500 people deadand some 300,000 homeless, Kenya was able to curb ethnic violence by forming a coalition government. But the two-headed leadership hasn't worked out so well, and a constitutional referendum last August called for checks and balances, a separation of powers, and new elections.

UKRAINE
Type: Parliamentary
When: Oct. 28
What to watch: Ukrainian politics have been rocky ever since 2004, when opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned with dioxin and a disputed presidential election sparked popular protests known as the "Orange Revolution."

MADAGASCAR
Type: Presidential, parliamentary
When: March (tentative)
What to watch: For the last 10 years, politics in Madagascar have been ugly. In the last two years alone, self-proclaimed President Marc Ravalomanana was deposed and tried in absentia for abuse of office, and interim leader Andry Rajoelina set a timetable for a constitutional referendum and elections that never came to fruition.

ALBANIA
Type: Presidential
When: July 23
What to watch: Albania still ranks as one of the poorest countries in Europe, and for the last two years the government has battled fraud and political crises. In 2009, the Democratic Party's Sali Berisha barely cobbled together a coalition with the Socialist Party, while fighting claims of election fraud. This year, four people were killed during an opposition rally on Jan. 21 -- whether it was murder or the government preventing a coup from people with "guns disguised as umbrellas and pens" depends on your political persuasion.

From Foreign Policy Magazine

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